Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <0.90 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0.90-1.00 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.10-1.20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.20-1.30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.00-1.10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.30-1.40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.40-1.50 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.50-1.60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the XRP/USDT closing price at noon ET on 10 May 2026, using Binance's 1-minute candle data. The 0% implied probability reflects the current order book on Polymarket, where no traders are pricing in a YES resolution at any bracket level. With nearly two years until settlement, the market shows minimal activity, typical for distant-dated crypto price predictions where uncertainty remains too high for meaningful positioning.
Historical precedent suggests XRP's volatility makes long-dated price brackets difficult to defend. Over the past five years, XRP has traded between $0.20 and $3.84, with major moves often driven by regulatory developments rather than gradual price drift. The SEC's ongoing litigation with Ripple, which has produced mixed rulings, remains the primary structural uncertainty affecting XRP's medium-term trajectory. Any settlement or clarification of XRP's regulatory status could materially shift price expectations, though such outcomes remain unscheduled beyond the current court calendar.
Traders monitoring this market should track regulatory announcements from the SEC and any appeals court decisions, as these typically trigger sharp repricing across XRP positions. Ripple's quarterly business developments and adoption metrics for its payment solutions also influence sentiment, though these rarely move the spot price decisively. The settlement window's distance means current pricing reflects genuine indifference rather than conviction that XRP will fall outside all bracket ranges by May 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XRP price on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$75K in lifetime turnover and $1.9M of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for xrp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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