Resolution criteria on PolyGram: If Jia Yueting enters mainland China by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, "entering mainland China" is defined as Jia Yueting physically setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Travel through airspace or territorial waters during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Jia Yueting, the Chinese billionaire founder of LeEco, has been effectively barred from mainland China since 2017 when he fled the country amid financial scandals and debt obligations exceeding $1.6bn. He subsequently obtained US citizenship and has remained based in California, where he has pursued ventures in electric vehicles through Faraday Future. The question of whether he will physically enter mainland China by end-2025 currently trades at 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting near-universal trader conviction that such a return remains implausible within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests Chinese authorities maintain long memories regarding high-profile financial fugitives. Comparable cases—including other billionaires who fled regulatory scrutiny—have resulted in decade-long entry bans or arrest warrants that persist regardless of changed circumstances. Yueting's specific liabilities include unpaid debts to state-owned enterprises and allegations of fraud, categories that typically warrant sustained enforcement rather than quiet resolution. The absence of any reported settlement negotiations or amnesty discussions distinguishes this case from situations where fugitives have negotiated returns.
Near-term catalysts remain absent. No credible reporting suggests imminent debt resolution, legal settlement, or official rehabilitation of Yueting's status. Chinese regulatory bodies have shown no indication of softening their position, and Yueting's recent focus on Faraday Future's US operations points away from mainland engagement. The settlement window closes mid-2026, leaving approximately twelve months for a reversal that would require extraordinary political or legal developments currently undetectable in available reporting.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $261 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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