Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lula da Silva <5% | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Tarcisio de Freitas Victory | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Lula da Silva 5-10% | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Lula da Silva 10-15% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Lula da Silva 15%+ | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Renan Santos Victory | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Brazil will hold its next presidential election on 4 October 2026. This market settles on the margin of victory in the first round—specifically, the percentage-point gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 26% probability that this margin exceeds a threshold yet to be specified in full market terms, reflecting substantial uncertainty about both the competitive field and final vote distribution.
Historical Brazilian elections show considerable variation in first-round margins. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the 2022 first round by just 1.8 percentage points over Jair Bolsonaro, one of the tightest contests in recent decades. By contrast, Fernando Henrique Cardoso secured 53.1% in 1994 and Dilma Rousseff won 46.9% in 2010, both commanding wider leads. The current 26% probability reflects a market pricing in a competitive scenario rather than a dominant frontrunner, though the field remains fluid nearly two years before the election.
Traders should monitor candidate registration deadlines, polling trends, and economic data releases through 2025 and into 2026. Inflation figures, unemployment rates, and real wage growth will shape voter sentiment heading into October. Coalition-building announcements and potential candidacy withdrawals could significantly alter the competitive dynamics. Recent polling from major Brazilian institutes will provide crucial signals about whether any candidate is consolidating support or whether fragmentation persists across the field.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$230K in lifetime turnover and $77K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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