Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5–7 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 8–10 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 11–13 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 14–16 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 17–19 | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| 20+ | 12% YES | 88% NO |
The market concerns the frequency of major seismic events in 2026, specifically earthquakes measuring 7.0 magnitude or above on the Richter scale. The USGS maintains a comprehensive global earthquake database and defines significant earthquakes partly by magnitude threshold, making it the authoritative source for settlement. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, suggesting traders assess the likelihood of seven or more such events occurring within the calendar year as negligible.
Historically, the Earth experiences roughly 15 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or above annually, though this figure varies considerably year to year. Between 2010 and 2023, annual counts ranged from 8 to 20 major earthquakes according to USGS records. The 0% probability now displayed does not align with this long-term average, indicating either an extremely pessimistic market interpretation or insufficient liquidity in the order book to establish a realistic price. Traders should note that even a single 7.0+ event would resolve this market to YES, making the current pricing potentially mispriced relative to historical seismic activity.
Catalysts for market movement include any significant seismic event that occurs and is confirmed by USGS, as well as broader geophysical developments such as changes in tectonic activity patterns. The market remains open through 31 December 2026, with a grace period extending to 7 January 2027 to allow for reporting delays on major earthquakes. Traders monitoring seismic activity bulletins from USGS or the International Seismological Centre will have early visibility of events that could shift the probability substantially.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.3M in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $151 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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