Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Singapore Changi Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 25°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 26°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 27°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 28°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 29°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 31°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 32°C | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On 7 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, capturing the peak daily temperature in Celsius. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical state where no positions have yet formed consensus around expected conditions.
Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily temperature patterns. May sits within the southwest monsoon season, with typical daily highs between 31–33°C at Changi Airport. Historical data from the past decade shows May temperatures rarely exceed 34°C or fall below 30°C, establishing a narrow band of likely outcomes. The 0% probability reading suggests traders have not yet engaged with this market or are awaiting additional information before committing capital to specific temperature bands.
Key variables affecting the outcome include monsoon intensity, which the Meteorological Service Singapore monitors and forecasts monthly, and any anomalous weather systems developing in the weeks preceding the settlement date. Traders should track the MSS's May 2026 monsoon outlook once released, typically in late April. Real-time atmospheric conditions in early May will prove decisive; sustained cloud cover or unexpected wind patterns could suppress temperatures, whilst clear skies and light winds would push readings toward the upper end of the seasonal range. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 May, fixing the resolution against Wunderground's final recorded data.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Singapore on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$83K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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