Trade: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 2?

Market context

On 2 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC that day, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific location. Currently, the order book shows 0% implied probability, indicating traders are either uncertain about which range will occur or have not yet positioned substantially in this market.

Guangzhou's June climate is consistently warm and humid, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–35°C during early summer. The city experiences pre-monsoon conditions in early June, which can occasionally push temperatures higher when high-pressure systems dominate, though tropical moisture often moderates extreme heat. Comparable June days at Baiyun Airport over the past decade show most highs cluster in the 33–34°C band, with occasional readings above 35°C during particularly dry spells. The 0% probability on the order book likely reflects either a specific temperature range being excluded from available options or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline position.

Traders monitoring this market should track China's meteorological forecasts and regional pressure patterns developing in late May 2026. The East Asian summer monsoon's onset timing significantly influences Guangzhou's early June temperatures; earlier monsoon arrival typically suppresses heat through increased cloud cover and precipitation, whilst delayed onset allows higher readings. Sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea and any subtropical high-pressure ridges positioning over southern China will be key catalysts shaping the eventual settlement outcome.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 2?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$140K in lifetime turnover and $383K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Last 24 hours alone saw $128K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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