Trade: Highest temperature in Dallas on May 11?

Market context

On 11 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. The market settles based on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC. Currently, the order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical state where no positions have yet been established at meaningful sizes.

Dallas's May temperatures typically range from the mid-80s to low-90s Fahrenheit, with historical May highs at Love Field averaging around 88°F. The city experiences considerable variability during spring, with occasional heat waves pushing temperatures into the mid-90s and cooler systems occasionally limiting highs to the upper 70s. Understanding the seasonal baseline is essential for calibrating expectations; May represents the transition into summer heat but remains subject to lingering spring weather patterns that can suppress temperatures significantly.

Traders should monitor late April and early May weather forecasts from the National Weather Service, which typically become reliable five to ten days before the settlement date. La Niña or El Niño conditions, if present in spring 2026, could influence broader temperature patterns across Texas. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric blocking patterns or tropical system activity in the Gulf of Mexico during early May could drive either anomalously warm or cool conditions. The current zero probability across all bands suggests the market awaits initial price discovery once traders begin positioning ahead of the May period.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Dallas on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$41K in lifetime turnover and $775K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Last 24 hours alone saw $22K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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