Trade: Will USD hit 2026 Iranian rials by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the specified price for any day between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $780
Market outcomes
| ↑ 1.9M | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| ↓ 1.7M | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| ↓ 1.5M | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| ↑ 2.0M | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| ↑ 1.8M | 69% YES | 31% NO |
| ↓ 1.6M | 8% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
The Iranian rial has experienced sustained depreciation against the US dollar over the past decade, driven by sanctions, capital flight, and monetary expansion. The market is pricing a 56% probability that the USD will reach a specified exchange rate threshold by end-June 2026, reflecting expectations of continued rial weakness. Bonbast's free-market rates typically trade significantly weaker than official rates, with the gap widening during periods of economic stress. Current order book depth on Polymarket suggests modest conviction around the midpoint, with YES and NO positions relatively balanced as traders assess the trajectory over the next 18 months.
Historical precedent indicates the rial's depreciation has accelerated during geopolitical tensions and tightened sanctions regimes. The 2018 US withdrawal from the JCPOA triggered rapid rial deterioration, whilst periods of negotiation or sanctions relief have occasionally stabilised the currency temporarily. The current probability reflects baseline expectations of continued weakness rather than an extreme outcome, positioning the threshold as plausible but not inevitable under baseline assumptions.
Key catalysts include developments in US-Iran relations, particularly any shifts in sanctions policy following the 2024 US election cycle, and domestic Iranian monetary policy decisions. The Central Bank of Iran's foreign exchange management and any capital controls adjustments will directly influence Bonbast rates. Oil price movements also matter substantially, as crude revenues affect Iran's external position and forex reserves. Traders should monitor official statements from both governments and watch for any surprise announcements regarding nuclear negotiations or sanctions modifications, which could trigger sharp repricing.
Wikipedia Context
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USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63)USS Kitty Hawk, formerly CVA-63, was a United States Navy supercarrier. She was the second naval ship named after Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, the site of the Wright brothers' first powered airplane flight. The lead ship of her class, Kitty Hawk was the first of the three Kitty Hawk-class aircraft carriers to be commissioned and the last to be decommissioned.
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USS Kitty Hawk riotThe USS Kitty Hawk riot was a racial conflict between white and Black crewmen aboard the United States Navy aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk on the night of 12–13 October 1972, while positioned in the Gulf of Tonkin off the coast of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War. In a retrospective article many years later, the Navy Times, called it "the worst shipboard ri
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USS Fitzgerald and MV ACX Crystal collisionEarly on 17 June 2017, the United States Navy destroyer USS Fitzgerald collided with MV ACX Crystal, a Philippine-flagged container ship, about 80 nautical miles southwest of Tokyo, Japan; 10 nautical miles southeast of the city of Shimoda on the Japanese mainland (Honshu).
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USS Little Rock (CL-92)USS Little Rock (CL-92/CLG-4/CG-4) is a Cleveland-class light cruiser and one of 27 completed for the United States Navy during or shortly after World War II. She is one of six to be converted to guided missile cruisers and the first US Navy ship to be named for Little Rock, Arkansas. Commissioned in mid-1945, she was completed too late to see combat duty du
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will USD hit 2026 Iranian rials by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for usd contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will USD hit 2026 Iranian rials by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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