Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether XRP/USD will be higher or equal at 10:15AM ET on 9 May 2026 compared to its price five minutes earlier at 10:10AM ET, as reported by Chainlink's data feed. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility in a cryptocurrency that has historically experienced sharp moves during US trading hours, particularly around macroeconomic announcements or regulatory developments affecting the digital asset sector.
The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in an upward or flat movement over this brief window. Such certainty in five-minute price predictions is uncommon; it typically emerges when either liquidity is thin and a single large order has moved the book substantially, or when traders perceive the downside risk as negligible relative to the upside. Historical precedent suggests that five-minute XRP price ranges rarely exceed 1-2% in normal market conditions, making downward movement within such a compressed timeframe statistically less likely than sideways or positive movement.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements—regulatory filings, exchange listings, or macroeconomic data releases—are timed near the settlement window. XRP's price action on Chainlink's feed can diverge temporarily from spot market prices during periods of low volume or network congestion. The settlement source's specificity to Chainlink data rather than broader market indices means basis risk exists if the oracle experiences delays or if spot markets move sharply whilst Chainlink's feed lags.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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