Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the XRP price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XRP/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| XRP Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures whether XRP/USD on Chainlink's data feed will close higher or flat over a five-minute window on 7 May 2026 at 4:15–4:20 PM ET. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects near-zero positioning for upward movement in this specific micro-timeframe, suggesting either minimal liquidity depth or strong consensus that downward or flat price action dominates the settlement window.
Five-minute price movements in XRP historically exhibit high variance relative to directional conviction. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on Polymarket show that extreme probabilities (0% or 100%) typically emerge when either no orders have been placed or when a single large order has moved the book substantially. At 0% YES, the order book is pricing in either negligible buy-side interest or an absence of counterparties willing to back upward movement at any reasonable odds. This contrasts with typical intraday XRP volatility, where five-minute candles frequently close in the green across random samples.
Traders should monitor XRP's broader price action in the hours preceding 4:15 PM ET on settlement day, as momentum or technical levels near that time could shift the micro-window outcome. Chainlink's XRP/USD feed aggregates multiple price sources, so any flash events, exchange outages, or coordinated trading activity affecting major venues could influence the feed's snapshot at the close. Regulatory announcements or macroeconomic data releases scheduled near that timestamp would be material catalysts, though none are currently scheduled for that specific five-minute band.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "XRP Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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