Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Solana Up or Down - May 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether Solana's price according to Chainlink's SOL/USD data feed is higher or equal at 2:05AM ET on 3 May 2026 compared to 2:00AM ET that same morning—a five-minute window. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting directional movement over such a compressed timeframe. Five-minute price movements in crypto are largely driven by order flow, algorithmic trading, and microstructure noise rather than fundamental information, making them effectively random from a traditional forecasting perspective. The current probability formation suggests traders view this as a near coin-flip proposition with minimal edge available.
Historical precedent from similar ultra-short-duration crypto price markets shows that five-minute windows rarely exhibit predictable directional bias. Solana's typical intraday volatility ranges from 1–3% daily, translating to roughly 0.01–0.03% expected movement over five minutes under normal conditions. However, concentrated liquidity events, flash crashes, or coordinated trading activity can distort prices sharply within such brief intervals. The Chainlink data feed's reliance on oracle aggregation means the settlement price reflects median values across multiple sources, potentially smoothing extreme outliers that might appear on individual exchanges.
Traders should monitor whether any scheduled announcements, network upgrades, or major ecosystem developments are timed near the settlement window, though the likelihood of material news breaking within a five-minute slot is negligible. Solana's 24-hour trading volume and the depth of SOL/USD pairs on major exchanges will determine how easily large orders move the needle during this period. Volatility clustering—where periods of high volatility tend to follow one another—could be a minor consideration if broader market turbulence is occurring around that timestamp.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for up or down contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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