Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hyperliquid's HYPE token price movement will be assessed over a five-minute window on 4 May 2026, from 12:00AM to 12:05AM ET, using Chainlink's HYPE/USD data feed as the authoritative source. The market resolves to "Up" if the closing price meets or exceeds the opening price within this narrow timeframe, otherwise to "Down". The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current market positioning, though such extreme probabilities in five-minute price windows typically indicate either sparse liquidity at the extremes or genuine consensus around directional bias.
Five-minute price windows present distinct dynamics compared to longer-duration markets. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short timeframes are heavily influenced by microstructure factors—order flow imbalances, exchange-specific liquidity conditions, and the precise timing of any news releases—rather than fundamental shifts. Token prices during such brief intervals frequently exhibit mean-reversion tendencies, particularly when no scheduled announcements or ecosystem developments are anticipated. The Chainlink data feed's specific pricing methodology may also differ marginally from spot exchange prices, creating basis considerations for traders familiar with HYPE's trading venues.
Traders should monitor whether any Hyperliquid protocol updates, governance announcements, or broader cryptocurrency market movements occur near the settlement window. Exchange liquidity conditions and trading volume patterns in the minutes preceding 12:00AM ET will influence price stability. The reliance on Chainlink's aggregated feed rather than individual exchange prices means that feed composition changes or data anomalies could affect settlement, though such occurrences remain uncommon.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: