Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Dogecoin's price in US dollars will be higher or equal at 8:10PM ET on 6 May compared to its level at 8:05PM ET the same day, using Chainlink's DOGE/USD data stream as the settlement source. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility in one of the market's most actively traded altcoins. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows the crowd pricing this micro-timeframe move at zero probability of upward movement, reflecting the difficulty of predicting short-term directional bias in a five-minute span.
Historical precedent suggests that five-minute cryptocurrency price movements are essentially random walks absent major news events. Dogecoin's typical intraday volatility ranges between 1–3% daily, meaning a five-minute window would ordinarily expect sub-0.1% moves in either direction. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book indicates traders are either pricing in a slight downward bias or treating the outcome as a near coin-flip that the market structure has pushed to an extreme. Such extreme probabilities on micro-timeframe markets often reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction.
Traders should monitor whether any announcements or social media activity from prominent Dogecoin advocates occurs during the settlement window, as Dogecoin has historically shown sensitivity to such signals. Broader cryptocurrency market movements, particularly Bitcoin's direction, typically drive altcoin sentiment within five-minute intervals. The Chainlink data stream itself carries execution risk; any feed delays or anomalies would affect settlement accuracy.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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