Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks whether Dogecoin's price on the Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream will be higher or equal at 1:10 AM ET on 2 May 2026 compared to 1:05 AM ET—a five-minute window. The settlement relies specifically on Chainlink's oracle pricing rather than spot exchange data, which can occasionally diverge during periods of low liquidity or network congestion. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to an upward move, reflecting either extreme bearish sentiment or minimal trading activity in this particular micro-timeframe contract.
Five-minute price movements in cryptocurrency are heavily influenced by order flow and technical positioning rather than fundamental developments. Historical precedent suggests that ultra-short-window contracts on volatile assets like Dogecoin frequently see sharp reversals when initial probability assessments become extreme; a 0% implied probability often indicates insufficient liquidity rather than certainty. Comparable micro-duration markets on major cryptocurrencies have demonstrated that such tight time windows can produce unexpected outcomes when market makers are absent or when positions unwind.
Traders should monitor Dogecoin's broader price action in the days preceding 2 May, as any significant volatility or news catalyst affecting sentiment could influence positioning. Recent market activity in Dogecoin has been tied to social media commentary and macroeconomic shifts rather than protocol-level developments. The Chainlink data feed's specific pricing methodology and any scheduled maintenance windows should be verified, as oracle updates or feed interruptions could affect settlement accuracy during the five-minute resolution window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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