Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
BNB, the native token of the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem, will be assessed over a five-minute window on 8 May 2026 from 12:00AM to 12:05AM ET. The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BNB/USD data stream shows a price at 12:05AM greater than or equal to the opening price at 12:00AM, otherwise "Down". The settlement window closes at 04:05 UTC on that date, providing a narrow timeframe for price discovery against Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot exchange data.
The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for "Up", suggesting traders are pricing in either minimal volatility expectations during this five-minute interval or a structural bias toward upward or flat movement. Five-minute price windows historically exhibit high variance across crypto markets; comparable micro-timeframe markets on BNB have shown resolution probabilities ranging from 45% to 55% under normal conditions. The extreme certainty here warrants scrutiny of whether liquidity constraints are driving the probability or if specific market conditions are anticipated.
Traders should monitor BNB's broader price action in the hours preceding the settlement window, as overnight Asian trading sessions often establish momentum that carries into early US hours. Chainlink oracle updates and any network-related announcements affecting BSC would be material, though the compressed timeframe limits exposure to major catalysts. Basis risk between Chainlink's feed and actual spot prices remains a consideration, particularly during periods of elevated volatility or exchange connectivity issues.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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