Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
BNB is trading in a five-minute window on 6 May from 8:05 PM to 8:10 PM Eastern Time, with settlement determined by Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The market currently shows 100% implied probability for an up move, reflecting the order book's assessment that the cryptocurrency will close this window at or above its opening level.
Five-minute price windows for major cryptocurrencies typically resolve to "up" roughly 50–55% of the time under normal volatility conditions, making the current 100% probability an extreme outlier. This suggests either exceptionally thin liquidity on Polymarket's order book for this specific contract, or traders have positioned heavily on directional conviction. Historical precedent indicates that such skewed probabilities in ultra-short timeframes often reflect minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus, particularly when the underlying asset (BNB) trades continuously across global exchanges with substantial volume.
Traders should monitor BNB's price action in the hours preceding the settlement window, as any significant volatility or directional momentum could shift the probability if additional liquidity enters the market. Broader cryptocurrency market movements, particularly Bitcoin's behaviour, often correlate with BNB price action. The Chainlink data feed itself carries execution risk; any feed delays or anomalies during the five-minute window could affect settlement, though such occurrences are rare. Given the extreme probability reading, the primary consideration is whether the order book depth justifies participation or whether the pricing reflects illiquidity rather than genuine edge.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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