Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Keir Starmer | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Wes Streeting | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Ed Miliband | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Angela Rayner | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Al Carns | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Andy Burnham | 47% YES | 54% NO |
The next Labour Party leadership election will occur following either Keir Starmer's departure from the role or a formal challenge mechanism being triggered. Labour last held a competitive leadership election in 2020, when Starmer secured the position with 56% of the membership vote against Rebecca Long-Bailey and Lisa Nandy. The party's rulebook permits leadership elections upon a leader's resignation, death, or removal through a confidence vote requiring 20% of MPs to trigger a ballot. The current 42% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether a leadership contest will materialise by end-2026 and, if one does, whether this particular candidate will clear the nomination threshold and appear on the ballot.
Historical precedent suggests Labour leadership elections are relatively infrequent but unpredictable in timing. Jeremy Corbyn faced a confidence vote in 2016 but survived; Starmer has faced periodic speculation about his tenure but no formal challenge has materialised as of late 2024. The probability assessment hinges on two distinct events: first, whether circumstances force a leadership election within the settlement window, and second, whether the named candidate would secure sufficient nominations from MPs and party members to stand. The latter requirement has tightened considerably since the 2015 election, when a lower threshold allowed a broader field of candidates.
Traders should monitor parliamentary Labour Party dynamics, any public statements from the candidate regarding leadership ambitions, and formal party announcements about rule changes or electoral timelines. Starmer's approval ratings and internal party stability will shape whether a contest becomes likely. The settlement window extends through December 2026, capturing roughly two years of potential political developments.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Candidates in next Labour leadership election?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$200 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for united kingdom contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $200 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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