Trade: Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $14K
- Total Volume
- $190K
- 24h Volume
- $232
- Open Interest
- $61K
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| December 31 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
Market context
Russia's advance in eastern Ukraine has focused on Donetsk Oblast, where Lyman represents a strategically significant town that Russian forces have partially surrounded. The municipality sits roughly 100 kilometres south-east of Kharkiv and serves as a logistics hub for Ukrainian operations in the region. As of late 2024, Russian forces control portions of Lyman's outskirts, but Ukrainian forces maintain positions within the town itself. The ISW map currently shows the municipality as contested rather than fully under Russian control, which aligns with field reports indicating ongoing urban combat and Ukrainian defensive operations.
The 3% implied probability reflects the substantial distance between current Russian positions and complete municipal capture. Historical precedent suggests that even when Russian forces achieve tactical breakthroughs in Donetsk, consolidating control over entire towns typically requires months of grinding urban warfare. The capture of Mariupol took roughly three months of intensive fighting; Sievierodonetsk required similar timeframes. Lyman's terrain and Ukrainian defensive preparations suggest comparable friction, particularly given Ukraine's demonstrated capacity to conduct localised counter-offensives that disrupt Russian consolidation efforts.
Traders should monitor Russian offensive tempo in Donetsk, particularly whether mechanised advances accelerate or stall. Ukrainian ammunition supply levels and Western military aid announcements will influence defensive sustainability. The ISW map updates daily and serves as the settlement arbiter; persistent Russian control must be demonstrated across the entire municipality, not merely tactical gains in peripheral areas. Winter conditions typically reduce offensive operations, potentially extending any Russian timeline substantially beyond the resolution window.
Wikipedia Context
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Battle of KhersonThe Battle of Kherson took place on 1 March 2022 on the southern front of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Russian forces captured the city on 1 March 2022 after brief combat with local territorial defense fighters, and then began a military occupation of the city.
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Russia-K
Russia-K is a Russian national not-for-profit television channel that broadcasts shows regarding arts and culture. It belongs to the state-controlled VGTRK group.
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Capture of ChernobylDuring the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone was captured on 24 February, the first day of the invasion, by the Russian Armed Forces, who entered Ukrainian territory from neighbouring Belarus and seized the entire area of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant by the end of that day. On 7 March, it was reported that around 300 people
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$190K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ukraine contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $232 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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