Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com high price (“H”) for any GBP/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized GBP/USD hourly candle high price is equal to or above the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑1.70 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑1.60 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| ↑1.55 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| ↑1.50 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| ↑1.45 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| ↑1.40 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| ↓1.30 | 58% YES | 42% NO |
| ↓1.25 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
Sterling's exchange rate against the dollar will determine whether GBP/USD reaches a specified level at any point during 2026. The market settles on the highest hourly candle price recorded on Investing.com through 31 December 2026, with resolution occurring immediately once any finalised hourly high meets or exceeds the target level. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies a 7% probability, reflecting trader assessment that this particular price level remains unlikely within the twelve-month window.
Historical GBP/USD volatility provides context for evaluating the current probability. Sterling has traded in a range of approximately 1.20 to 1.40 over the past decade, with significant moves typically requiring substantial macroeconomic shifts or policy divergence between the Bank of England and Federal Reserve. The 2016 Brexit referendum triggered a 10% sterling depreciation within weeks, whilst the 2022 gilt market dysfunction saw brief but sharp moves. A 7% probability suggests the market is pricing in a meaningful but not exceptional move—comparable to scenarios requiring either sustained monetary policy divergence or a significant economic shock.
Traders monitoring this market should track Bank of England interest rate decisions and forward guidance, particularly any signals regarding 2026 policy trajectories. US Federal Reserve communications will equally influence the sterling-dollar dynamic, as will UK economic data releases affecting inflation and growth expectations. Recent sterling weakness in late 2024 reflected concerns about UK fiscal sustainability and growth prospects relative to US resilience, though these dynamics remain fluid. Major fiscal announcements or unexpected inflation data from either economy could rapidly shift the probability reflected in the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$58K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for uk contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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