Trade: Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping meets with one or more Iranian government officials by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Xi and one or more Iranian government officials are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $88K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $44K
Market outcomes
| Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
The question centres on whether Xi Jinping will have a direct, in-person meeting with Iranian government officials between now and mid-May 2026. The resolution criteria require clear personal interaction—conversation, handshake, or exchange of words—rather than mere proximity at a shared event. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 1% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism among traders about such an encounter occurring within the specified timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests high-level China-Iran diplomatic engagement typically occurs through scheduled state visits or multilateral forums rather than ad-hoc meetings. Xi last visited Iran in 2016, with the most recent significant bilateral interaction occurring at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in 2023. Comparable diplomatic meetings between Chinese and Iranian leadership have generally been planned months in advance, with formal announcements preceding them. The 1% probability reflects the compressed timeline—approximately eighteen months—and the absence of any publicly signalled plans for such a meeting as of early 2025.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements regarding Xi's international travel schedule, particularly any official state visits to the Middle East or multilateral summits where Iranian officials might attend. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's 2026 calendar and any extraordinary diplomatic initiatives following shifts in US-Iran relations would constitute material catalysts. Chinese state media typically announces high-level foreign visits well in advance, making surprise meetings unlikely. The low probability also incorporates the reality that formal bilateral meetings of this calibre require extensive diplomatic preparation and scheduling coordination.
Wikipedia Context
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Xi Mensae
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Ximena SariñanaXimena Sariñana Rivera is a Mexican singer-songwriter and actress. In 2009, she received critical acclaim and a Grammy nomination for her debut album, Mediocre.
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Mariana XimenesMariana Ximenes do Prado Nuzzi is a Brazilian actress. Her first role was in the telenovela Fascinação in 1998 where she portrayed the role of Emília Gouveia. In the same year she played the role of Ruth Stern in the film Caminho dos Sonhos. In 2000, she played in Uga-Uga portraying "Bionda". This role rise to prominence as she became widely known in Brazil
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Carlos Filipe Ximenes BeloCarlos Filipe Ximenes Belo, SDB, commonly known as Carlos Belo or Ximenes Belo is an East Timorese prelate of the Catholic Church. He became a bishop in 1988 and served as the apostolic administrator of the Diocese of Díli from 1988 to 2002. In 1996, he shared the Nobel Peace Prize with José Ramos-Horta for working "towards a just and peaceful solution to th
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 1% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $10000 if YES resolves true — a 9900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$88K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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