Trump

Trade: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

53% YES 47% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$36K
Total Volume
$154K
24h Volume
$7K
Open Interest
$46K
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? 53% YES48% NO

Market context

Iran's nuclear programme remains a central point of contention in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The question of whether Iran will publicly commit to halting uranium enrichment by end-2026 hinges on diplomatic developments that could unfold across multiple channels—bilateral negotiations with the Trump administration, multilateral talks involving European powers, or direct engagement with Israel. The current 53% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether such an agreement materialises within the timeframe, with the market pricing in meaningful but not overwhelming odds of a formal Iranian pledge.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals for interpreting this probability. Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015, committing to enrichment limits, though the agreement unravelled after the US withdrew in 2018. The subsequent years saw Iran progressively breach enrichment thresholds, suggesting that formal commitments from Tehran can be reversible under political pressure. However, the resolution criteria here require only a public agreement or pledge—not sustained compliance—which lowers the bar compared to the JCPOA's enforcement mechanisms. This distinction may explain why the market assigns better-than-even odds to a YES outcome.

Traders should monitor several near-term catalysts. Any Trump administration overtures towards Iran negotiations, statements from Iranian leadership regarding nuclear posture, and developments in Israel-Iran tensions will move the order book materially. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iranian enrichment levels provide factual anchors for assessing negotiating positions. Announcements from European intermediaries or UN channels could signal momentum towards talks. The two-year settlement window allows time for diplomatic cycles to complete, though geopolitical shocks could rapidly shift probabilities in either direction.

Wikipedia Context

  • Iranian Green Movement
    Iranian Green Movement

    The Iranian Green Movement or Green Wave of Iran, also referred to as the Persian Awakening or Persian Spring by Western media, refers to a political movement that arose after the 12 June 2009 Iranian presidential election and lasted until early 2010, in which protesters demanded the removal of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from office. Green was initially used as the

  • Greece–Iran relations
    Greece–Iran relations

    Greece–Iran relations were formally established between the Kingdom of Greece and Qajar Iran on 19 November 1902. Greece and Iran share one of the oldest documented relationships in world history, beginning in the Achaemenid Empire when the Persians encountered the Greeks.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 53% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $189 if YES resolves true — a 89% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$154K in lifetime turnover and $36K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 53%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on " Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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