Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| >$400M | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| >$800M | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| >$200M | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| >$600M | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| >$1B | 18% YES | 82% NO |
Coinbase's token sales programme, which facilitates initial coin offerings and token launches on its platform, will determine whether aggregate capital raised through such sales during 2026 exceeds a specified threshold. The resolution hinges on official disclosures from Coinbase regarding total proceeds from token sales conducted through its infrastructure during the calendar year, with the settlement window extending to January 2027 to capture year-end activity and reporting.
Historical context suggests Coinbase's token sale volumes fluctuate significantly with broader crypto market cycles and regulatory clarity. In 2021, during the bull market, Coinbase facilitated substantial token launches, whilst 2022–2023 saw considerably reduced activity as market conditions contracted and institutional participation declined. The current 38% implied probability on Polymarket reflects moderate scepticism about whether 2026 will generate sufficient token sale volume to clear the specified amount, suggesting traders anticipate either continued market consolidation or that Coinbase's share of the token launch market may face competition from decentralised alternatives and other platforms.
Traders should monitor several catalysts: regulatory developments affecting token offerings in major jurisdictions, Coinbase's quarterly earnings reports and strategic announcements regarding its token sale programme, broader cryptocurrency market sentiment and institutional adoption trends, and competitive positioning relative to other platforms offering token launches. The timing of major protocol upgrades, layer-two scaling solutions gaining adoption, and macroeconomic conditions affecting venture capital deployment into crypto projects will all influence whether sufficient capital flows through Coinbase's sales infrastructure during 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How much will Coinbase token sales raise in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$329K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for token sales contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $242 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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