Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tena Lukas and Darja Semenistaja in the Makarska, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tena Lukas' if Tena Lukas advances against Darja Semenistaja. This market will resolve to 'Darja Semenistaja' if Darja Semenistaja advances against Tena Lukas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Match O/U 21.5 | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Match O/U 22.5 | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Match O/U 23.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Set 1 Winner | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
Tena Lukas and Darja Semenistaja are scheduled to compete in a professional tennis match in Makarska on 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Lukas's advancement at 35 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest confidence in the Croatian player's prospects against her opponent. Settlement occurs on 10 June, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50–50 resolution.
Lukas, a Croatian national competing on home soil, typically benefits from crowd support and familiarity with regional court conditions, factors that have historically improved lower-ranked players' conversion rates in domestic tournaments. Semenistaja, a Belarusian competitor, brings the disadvantage of travel and unfamiliar surfaces, though her seeding relative to Lukas will ultimately determine whether the 35 per cent probability reflects underdog or favourite status. Historical data from similar regional European women's tennis events suggests that home-court advantage typically shifts implied probabilities by 8–15 percentage points, depending on ranking differential.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any late withdrawals through the WTA or ITF announcement channels, as injury or scheduling conflicts frequently alter match outcomes in lower-tier events. Weather conditions in Makarska during early June—particularly heat and humidity—may favour certain playing styles. Confirmation of the exact match time and court assignment, typically published 48 hours before play, can shift market sentiment if either player has documented performance patterns on specific surfaces or in particular conditions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $32K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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