Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marcel Zielinski and Oskar Jansson in the ITF Men Rosbach, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcel Zielinski' if Marcel Zielinski advances against Oskar Jansson. This market will resolve to 'Oskar Jansson' if Oskar Jansson advances against Marcel Zielinski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Rosbach: Marcel Zielinski vs Oskar Jansson | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Marcel Zielinski faces Oskar Jansson in an ITF Men's event at Rosbach, originally scheduled for 3 June 2026. The match is set for 07:00 ET, with settlement occurring by 10 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability for Zielinski's advancement, suggesting the market views him as a clear favourite in this lower-tier professional matchup.
ITF circuit outcomes at this level carry substantial variance, with ranking disparities often less predictive than ATP or Challenger events. Comparable ITF tournaments show that favourites at 80%+ probability advance roughly 75–85% of the time, though upsets remain common when players are closely matched in ranking or recent form. Without current ATP rankings or recent head-to-head data publicly available, the 82% probability likely reflects Zielinski's seeding status, recent tournament results, or surface preference at the Rosbach venue.
Key catalysts include confirmation of both players' participation as the event approaches, any last-minute withdrawals or injuries, and weather conditions affecting the outdoor clay or hard court surface. The ITF schedule occasionally experiences delays; if the match is postponed beyond 7 June without completion, the market resolves to 50-50 regardless of score. Traders should monitor the official ITF website and tournament draw updates in the week preceding 3 June for any scheduling changes or player status announcements that could shift the probability materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Rosbach: Marcel Zielinski vs Oskar Jansson" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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