Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Doga Turkmen and Marie Villet in the ITF Women Kayseri, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Doga Turkmen' if Doga Turkmen advances against Marie Villet. This market will resolve to 'Marie Villet' if Marie Villet advances against Doga Turkmen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kayseri: Doga Turkmen vs Marie Villet | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Doga Turkmen, a Turkish player competing on the ITF Women's circuit, faces Marie Villet in a first-round match at the Kayseri tournament scheduled for early June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Turkmen's advancement at 26 per cent implied probability, suggesting the market views Villet as the favoured player. This pricing reflects the aggregate positions of traders responding to available form data, head-to-head records, and surface conditions at the time of trading.
Turkmen competes regularly on the ITF Women's 25K and 15K circuit, where she has accumulated wins against players of comparable ranking. Villet, a French competitor, has similarly operated within ITF tournaments across Europe. The 74-point probability gap between the two players indicates the market perceives a material difference in their current competitive standing, though ITF matches remain inherently volatile given the lower seeding requirements and variable opponent quality at this tier. Historical ITF outcomes show that ranking-based predictions hold moderate predictive power, but upsets occur frequently when lower-ranked players face surface-specific advantages or momentum shifts.
Traders should monitor any late withdrawals or schedule changes from the tournament organisers in the week preceding June 4th, as ITF events occasionally see fixture adjustments. Injury reports or recent match results from either player in the fortnight before Kayseri would alter the information set underlying current pricing. The settlement window extends to June 11th, allowing seven days for completion; matches abandoned after play has begun but unfinished will resolve according to the advancement rule specified in the market terms.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kayseri: Doga Turkmen vs Marie Villet" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11 in lifetime turnover and $490 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $11 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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