Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Yua Taka and Evan Zhu in the ITF Men Karuizawa, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yua Taka' if Yua Taka advances against Evan Zhu. This market will resolve to 'Evan Zhu' if Evan Zhu advances against Yua Taka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Karuizawa: Yua Taka vs Evan Zhu | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Yua Taka and Evan Zhu are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Karuizawa tournament on 27 May 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. The market currently reflects a 0% implied probability for Taka's advancement, indicating the order book is pricing Zhu as the overwhelming favourite. Settlement occurs by 4 June 2026, allowing a seven-day window for match completion; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.
ITF Futures events at the Karuizawa venue typically feature developing professional players competing for ranking points. The 0% probability on Polymarket's order book suggests either significant disparity in player rankings or recent form, or minimal liquidity in the market itself. Historical ITF matches involving substantial ranking gaps often see the favoured player advance, though upsets occur at roughly 15–25% frequency depending on the level differential. Current market depth should be examined to determine whether the extreme probability reflects genuine conviction or sparse order book activity.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any player withdrawal announcements through the ITF official website and ATP/WTA news feeds. Injury reports or late scratches in the days preceding 27 May could alter match dynamics significantly. Weather conditions at Karuizawa and court surface (typically hard court) may favour one player's style. Any changes to scheduled timing or venue should be tracked, as delays beyond the seven-day window would force resolution to 50-50 regardless of match status.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Karuizawa: Yua Taka vs Evan Zhu" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$174 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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