Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Swan and Dalayna Hewitt in the ITF Women Kurume, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katie Swan' if Katie Swan advances against Dalayna Hewitt. This market will resolve to 'Dalayna Hewitt' if Dalayna Hewitt advances against Katie Swan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kurume: Katie Swan vs Dalayna Hewitt | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Katie Swan, the British ITF professional, faces Dalayna Hewitt in the ITF Women's tournament at Kurume, Japan, scheduled for 13 May 2026. The 93% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a significant disparity in player ranking and recent form. Swan, ranked substantially higher on the WTA scale, enters as the clear favourite. The current pricing suggests minimal uncertainty about the match outcome itself, though the settlement window extends to 21 May, allowing a seven-day buffer for delays or scheduling complications common in lower-tier professional tennis.
Historical context for ITF Women's matches at this level shows that ranking-based probabilities typically prove reliable, particularly when the gap between competitors is pronounced. Swan's professional experience and tour-level exposure create a structural advantage that manifests consistently in head-to-head matchups against players operating primarily at ITF 25K and 15K level events. Hewitt, competing at ITF level, would require an exceptional performance to overcome this disparity. The 93% probability aligns with comparable scenarios where top-100 ranked players face lower-ranked ITF competitors.
Traders should monitor the official ITF and WTA schedule for any venue changes or cancellations affecting the Kurume event, which occasionally experiences weather-related disruptions during the Japanese spring season. Injury announcements from either player in the fortnight preceding the match would represent the primary catalyst for significant repricing. Court conditions and surface preferences—the Kurume event typically features hard courts—favour established professionals like Swan, reinforcing the current market consensus.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kurume: Katie Swan vs Dalayna Hewitt" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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