Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Arantxa Rus and Anastasia Tikhonova in the ITF Women Tauste-Zaragoza, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arantxa Rus' if Arantxa Rus advances against Anastasia Tikhonova. This market will resolve to 'Anastasia Tikhonova' if Anastasia Tikhonova advances against Arantxa Rus. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Arantxa Rus, the Dutch professional ranked outside the top 200, faces Anastasia Tikhonova, a Russian ITF circuit regular, in the women's draw at Tauste-Zaragoza on 27 May 2026. The 50-50 implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty between two players operating at similar competitive levels on the lower-tier professional circuit. Rus has competed sporadically on the ITF Women's circuit in recent seasons whilst maintaining a baseline ranking through WTA activity, whereas Tikhonova competes primarily within the ITF ecosystem where consistency and match sharpness often determine outcomes.
Historical precedent on ITF Women's matches at this tier shows that surface conditions, recent match frequency, and travel logistics substantially influence results. Rus's occasional ITF appearances typically occur between WTA commitments, creating variable preparation states. Tikhonova's regular ITF participation suggests higher match rhythm, though this advantage can be offset by opponent experience. The current market pricing suggests traders view these factors as offsetting.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through the ITF website in the week preceding 27 May. Scheduling changes remain possible given the early morning ET slot (4:00AM), which may affect player availability or match postponement risk. The settlement window extends to 3 June, providing a seven-day buffer for completion, though delays beyond this trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Recent form updates on either player's social media or ITF rankings pages could shift the order book substantially if either player reports injury or unusual preparation circumstances.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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