Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Arjun Rathi and Aaron Funk in the ITF Men Hurghada, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 3:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arjun Rathi' if Arjun Rathi advances against Aaron Funk. This market will resolve to 'Aaron Funk' if Aaron Funk advances against Arjun Rathi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Hurghada: Arjun Rathi vs Aaron Funk | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Arjun Rathi and Aaron Funk are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Hurghada tournament on 13 May 2026. The match is set for 3:15 PM ET, with settlement occurring by 20 May 2026. Current order book activity on Polymarket shows zero probability for a Rathi victory, reflecting either minimal liquidity or strong conviction among early traders that Funk will advance. The 0% implied probability is an extreme position that typically emerges when one side of a market has received no backing whatsoever, rather than reflecting genuine certainty about the outcome.
ITF Futures events at this level feature players ranked outside the ATP top 200, where match outcomes are considerably less predictable than established tour fixtures. Historical ITF Hurghada tournaments have produced upsets and withdrawals at rates higher than ATP-level events, partly due to travel logistics and player commitment levels. The current probability formation likely reflects either incomplete information about player form, recent results, or surface preference rather than a definitive assessment of match quality.
Traders should monitor official ITF and tournament draw confirmations as the event date approaches, particularly any late withdrawals or scheduling changes. Player injury updates and recent match records on clay courts—Hurghada's surface—will be material catalysts. The seven-day grace period for delays means matches postponed beyond 20 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating additional settlement risk beyond simple match outcome uncertainty.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Hurghada: Arjun Rathi vs Aaron Funk" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$383 in lifetime turnover and $706K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $383 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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