Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mark Laubic and Aristotelis Thanos in the ITF Men Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mark Laubic' if Mark Laubic advances against Aristotelis Thanos. This market will resolve to 'Aristotelis Thanos' if Aristotelis Thanos advances against Mark Laubic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mark Laubic vs Aristotelis Thanos | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Mark Laubic and Aristotelis Thanos are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Kursumlijska Banja tournament on 27 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture on the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a Laubic victory, suggesting either minimal trading activity or strong conviction amongst early traders that Thanos will prevail. With settlement occurring on 3 June 2026, there remains approximately one week for the match to be played and resolved.
ITF Men's events at this tier typically feature significant volatility in player availability and match outcomes. Historical patterns show that matches involving players ranked outside the ATP top 500 often see late withdrawals, injuries, or upsets that confound pre-match expectations. The 0% implied probability reflects either a substantial information advantage regarding Laubic's fitness or form, or simply insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful two-sided market. Traders should monitor ITF official announcements and player social media for withdrawal notices, which frequently occur within 48 hours of scheduled play.
The settlement mechanism carries particular relevance here: matches delayed beyond seven days without completion, cancellations, or incomplete play resolve to 50-50, creating tail-risk scenarios that may not be reflected in current pricing. Weather disruptions at the Kursumlijska Banja venue and player travel logistics represent material catalysts. Any movement in the order book would likely signal new information regarding player status or match scheduling changes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mark Laubic vs Aristotelis Thanos" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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