Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Noah Karma and Ryo Tabata in the ITF Men Bol, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Noah Karma' if Noah Karma advances against Ryo Tabata. This market will resolve to 'Ryo Tabata' if Ryo Tabata advances against Noah Karma. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bol: Noah Karma vs Ryo Tabata | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Noah Karma faces Ryo Tabata in an ITF Men's tournament match scheduled for 27 May 2026 at 7:00 AM ET in Bol, Croatia. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Karma's advancement, suggesting near-complete certainty among traders that he will win the match or that Tabata will be unable to compete. This extreme pricing typically emerges when one player holds a substantial ranking advantage, has withdrawn from the event, or when information asymmetries favour one outcome decisively.
ITF Men's circuit matches at this level historically show volatile settlement patterns. Lower-ranked players frequently withdraw due to injury or scheduling conflicts in the days before competition, and matches occasionally fail to reach completion within the seven-day resolution window. The 100% probability here likely reflects either Tabata's withdrawal announcement or a significant ranking disparity—Karma competing substantially higher on the ATP rankings would justify such pricing. Comparable ITF markets have occasionally collapsed from near-certainty when unexpected player availability changes emerge late.
Traders should monitor official ITF and ATP communications through 27 May for any withdrawal notices, injury updates, or schedule amendments. The settlement window extends to 3 June at 11:00 AM UTC, providing a six-day buffer beyond the scheduled match date. Any delay beyond 7 days without a determined winner triggers a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk for those holding YES positions at current extremes.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bol: Noah Karma vs Ryo Tabata" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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