Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Toshiki Karigyo and Yuta Tomida in the ITF Men Wuning, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toshiki Karigyo' if Toshiki Karigyo advances against Yuta Tomida. This market will resolve to 'Yuta Tomida' if Yuta Tomida advances against Toshiki Karigyo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Wuning: Toshiki Karigyo vs Yuta Tomida | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Toshiki Karigyo and Yuta Tomida are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Wuning tournament on 13 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture, with the winner advancing in the draw. Current order book activity on Polymarket prices Karigyo's advancement at 20 per cent implied probability, suggesting the market views Tomida as the stronger prospect or expects Karigyo to face material obstacles to progression.
ITF Men's circuit matches at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the ATP top 200, where form variance and surface-specific strengths create substantial uncertainty. Historical resolution patterns for similar ITF fixtures show that seeding and recent tournament results carry predictive weight, though upsets occur frequently enough that even favourites settle below 70 per cent. Without published seeding or recent head-to-head records readily available, the 20 per cent valuation for Karigyo reflects either a significant ranking or form disadvantage relative to Tomida, or market participants pricing in withdrawal risk given the eight-day settlement window.
Traders should monitor ITF official draws and player withdrawal announcements through early May, as lower-ranked players frequently pull from tournaments due to injury or scheduling conflicts. Court surface designation—clay, hard court, or grass—will influence matchup dynamics substantially. Any late injury news or ranking updates affecting either player could shift the order book materially before the 13 May fixture date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Wuning: Toshiki Karigyo vs Yuta Tomida" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$48 in lifetime turnover and $292 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $48 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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