Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Maxime Chazal and Arthur Nagel in the ITF Men Carnac, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 7:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maxime Chazal' if Maxime Chazal advances against Arthur Nagel. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Nagel' if Arthur Nagel advances against Maxime Chazal. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Carnac: Maxime Chazal vs Arthur Nagel | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Maxime Chazal and Arthur Nagel are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's tournament at Carnac on 29 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional fixture on the ITF circuit, where both players are developing their rankings and match experience. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a Chazal victory, suggesting either minimal trading activity or strong conviction amongst the limited participants that Nagel will prevail.
ITF matches at this level typically feature players ranked outside the ATP top 500, making historical precedent difficult to establish from major databases. However, the 0% implied probability warrants scrutiny—such extreme odds often reflect thin liquidity rather than certainty. Comparable ITF fixtures frequently see probability shifts once draw details confirm, travel logistics become clear, or recent form data surfaces. The settlement window closes on 5 June 2026, providing a week-long buffer beyond the scheduled date for match completion or force majeure resolution.
Key variables for traders include confirmation of both players' participation as the tournament approaches, recent head-to-head records if available, and any surface-specific advantages (clay courts at Carnac may favour particular playing styles). Withdrawal announcements or injury reports in the fortnight before the match could substantially alter the current pricing. The ITF circuit sees occasional scheduling disruptions; monitoring the official Carnac tournament website for draw confirmations and match time adjustments will be essential for assessing execution risk.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Carnac: Maxime Chazal vs Arthur Nagel" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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