Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castagnola and Pietro Romeo Scomparin in the ITF Men Ljubljana, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castagnola' if Luca Castagnola advances against Pietro Romeo Scomparin. This market will resolve to 'Pietro Romeo Scomparin' if Pietro Romeo Scomparin advances against Luca Castagnola. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ljubljana: Luca Castagnola vs Pietro Romeo Scomparin | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Luca Castagnola and Pietro Romeo Scomparin are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's Ljubljana tournament on 3 June 2026. The market currently prices Castagnola's advancement at 57% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting modest favouritism. The settlement window closes on 10 June, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the original match date to account for potential scheduling disruptions common in lower-tier professional tennis.
Both players compete primarily on the ITF circuit, where match outcomes depend heavily on surface preference, recent form, and head-to-head records. Castagnola's current implied edge suggests traders view him as the stronger performer based on available ranking data and recent results, though the probability remains competitive rather than decisive. Historical ITF matches at this level typically see favourites with 55–65% implied probability when there is meaningful uncertainty around player fitness or recent tournament performance.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament updates and player withdrawal announcements through early June, as injuries or scheduling conflicts frequently alter lower-ranked professional fixtures. Weather conditions in Ljubljana during early June could affect clay-court play. Any late-stage player withdrawals would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, fundamentally reshaping market dynamics. Current order book depth will indicate whether the 57% reflects genuine conviction or thin liquidity at the current price level.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ljubljana: Luca Castagnola vs Pietro Romeo Scomparin" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$49 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $49 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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