Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between August Holmgren and Leandro Riedi in the Gwangju, originally scheduled for April 24, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'August Holmgren' if August Holmgren advances against Leandro Riedi. This market will resolve to 'Leandro Riedi' if Leandro Riedi advances against August Holmgren. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
August Holmgren and Leandro Riedi are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match in Gwangju on 24 April 2026. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability on Holmgren's advancement, as shown across Polymarket's order book. This extreme pricing suggests either overwhelming confidence in Holmgren's superiority or minimal liquidity at current levels, a common pattern in lower-tier professional tennis matchups where trading activity remains sparse.
Holmgren, a Swedish player, and Riedi, a Swiss competitor, operate primarily on the ATP Challenger and ITF circuits. Historical precedent indicates that markets on Challenger-level matches often price in seeding, recent form, and head-to-head records when available. The 100% probability here likely reflects either a significant ranking or recent performance differential, though such extreme odds typically indicate shallow order books rather than genuine certainty. Comparable Challenger markets have shown substantial repricing when additional information surfaces or when traders with deeper circuit knowledge enter positions.
Traders should monitor ATP Challenger circuit announcements regarding draw confirmations and any late withdrawals, which remain common in professional tennis. Surface conditions in Gwangju and recent tournament results for both players in the weeks preceding the match will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current pricing. The settlement window extends to 2 May 2026, allowing five days post-match for official confirmation, though standard ATP procedures typically confirm results within hours of completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Leandro Riedi" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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