Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Estevez and Andrea Collarini in the Cordoba, originally scheduled for May 11, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Estevez' if Juan Estevez advances against Andrea Collarini. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Collarini' if Andrea Collarini advances against Juan Estevez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Match O/U 21.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Juan Estevez and Andrea Collarini are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match at the Córdoba tournament on 11 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book, indicating genuine uncertainty about the outcome. Settlement occurs on 18 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that period triggers a 50-50 resolution regardless of circumstances.
Both players compete on the ATP Challenger circuit, where surface conditions and recent form typically drive match outcomes more sharply than at higher tiers. Córdoba's clay court has historically favoured baseline grinders with solid defensive mechanics. Historical Challenger results suggest that head-to-head records between players of similar ranking carry modest predictive weight; instead, recent tournament performance in the preceding four weeks and clay-court specialisation tend to correlate more strongly with advancement. The even split on the order book suggests traders lack clear information asymmetry about either player's current fitness or recent results.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of both players' participation, any injury announcements in the week prior to 11 May, and weather disruptions affecting the Córdoba schedule. Tournament scheduling changes or withdrawals could alter match timing or pairing. Traders should monitor ATP Challenger standings and recent clay-court results from both players through early May to assess whether the current 50-50 pricing reflects genuine parity or represents mispricing relative to recent form data.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cordoba: Juan Estevez vs Andrea Collarini" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $28 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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