Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if CrowdStrike's net new ARR for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
Tech and product-launch markets reflect insider whisper, dev signals and roadmap leaks — the order book frequently leads official announcements by weeks. Current odds favour the YES side at 93%, making this a high-confidence market with 6 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $4K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $225M | 93% YES | 7% NO |
| $275M | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| $250M | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| $300M | 20% YES | 80% NO |
CrowdStrike's first fiscal quarter of 2027 will conclude in April 2026, with earnings typically reported within weeks thereafter. The market is pricing a 93% probability that the company's net new Annual Recurring Revenue will exceed a specified threshold, reflecting confidence in sustained growth momentum. The settlement window closes on 3 June 2026, allowing traders roughly two weeks post-earnings to assess the official company disclosures before resolution.
CrowdStrike has demonstrated consistent ARR expansion through its recent fiscal years, though the company faced operational disruption following a significant software incident in July 2024. Historical precedent suggests the market's elevated confidence reflects expectations that the company will have recovered customer momentum and maintained its competitive position in endpoint security and cloud workloads. Comparable SaaS security vendors have typically recovered ARR growth within two to three quarters following major incidents, provided customer retention remains above 90%.
The key catalyst is CrowdStrike's Q1 2027 earnings release, scheduled for late May or early June 2026. Traders should monitor quarterly guidance revisions, customer win announcements, and any commentary on churn rates during the settlement window. The Polymarket order book is currently pricing this outcome with tight spreads, indicating substantial liquidity and consensus around the bullish case. Any material customer losses or guidance reductions announced before earnings would likely shift the implied probability downward, whilst positive customer announcements or analyst upgrades could reinforce the current positioning.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 3 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Tech and product-launch markets resolve from official company announcements — payouts clear quickly when the launch is unambiguous (a public release), and slowly only when the event spec required a specific feature subset that needs verification. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above 2026?", tech markets see asymmetric depth — heavy on one side when consensus is one-directional, with the contrarian side often offering favourable risk/reward for short-position seekers.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($4K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $415 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Tech and product-launch markets are exposed to launch delays — even a one-week slip past the deadline resolves NO regardless of how close the company was to launching. Set sharp alerts on roadmap leaks and earnings calls.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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