Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anthropic | 95% YES | 5% NO |
| OpenAI | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| xAI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Baidu | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Amazon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mistral | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Meituan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Microsoft | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard maintains a live ranking of large language models based on user preference voting across various tasks, with a dedicated coding category that isolates performance on programming-related challenges. On 31 May 2026, the model ranked highest in the "Text Arena | Coding" category will determine the winning company. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 96% implied probability that a single company will hold this position, suggesting traders view the competitive landscape as relatively settled or expect minimal disruption over the next eighteen months.
Historical precedent from similar coding benchmarks shows that leadership positions shift gradually rather than dramatically. OpenAI's GPT models, Anthropic's Claude variants, and Google's Gemini have traded positions on various leaderboards depending on evaluation methodology and timing. The Chatbot Arena's voting mechanism differs from static benchmarks, introducing volatility through user preference shifts, yet the same organisations consistently occupy top positions. The 96% probability reflects confidence that one of the established players will retain dominance rather than uncertainty about which company holds the lead.
Traders should monitor major model releases and updates from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta through the settlement window. Coding-specific improvements—such as enhanced reasoning for complex algorithms or better handling of edge cases—could shift rankings meaningfully. The leaderboard's real-time nature means that concentrated voting periods or systematic preference changes in the coding category could alter rankings in the weeks preceding May 2026. Technical announcements regarding model architecture improvements or training methodology changes warrant close attention.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which company has the best Coding AI model end of May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $49K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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