Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple announces it has or will release the listed product or software during the WWDC 2026 keynote currently scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on June 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve immediately upon qualifying announcements from Apple, regardless of if/when the specified product becomes available for purchase. Any announcements made outside of the WWDC 2026 keynote will not qualify. Only announcements made at the specified event will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| All Six OS 27 Versions | 87% YES | 13% NO |
| HomePod Mini Successor | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| New Product Line | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| AI-Charged Siri | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| Apple Smart Home Display | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Standalone Siri App | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Foldable iPhone | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| iPhone 18 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in June 2026 represents the company's primary annual platform for announcing new software frameworks, operating system updates, and occasionally hardware products. The keynote, scheduled for 10 a.m. PT on 8 June 2026, typically draws significant media attention and sets the direction for Apple's ecosystem across iPhone, iPad, Mac, and wearables for the coming year. This market resolves based solely on announcements made during the keynote itself; product availability dates or subsequent press releases do not qualify.
Historical precedent suggests WWDC keynotes consistently deliver at least one major software announcement, with the probability of hardware reveals varying considerably year to year. Between 2020 and 2025, Apple announced new MacBook Pro models, iPad Pro variants, and Vision Pro at WWDC events, though software-only years also occurred. The 88% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence that Apple will announce something material enough to meet resolution criteria, though the specific product category remains unspecified in this market structure. This elevated probability aligns with WWDC's established track record as a venue for substantive product news rather than minor updates.
Traders should monitor Apple's product roadmap signals and supply chain reports through early 2026, particularly regarding Mac hardware refresh cycles and iOS 19 development timelines. Recent industry coverage has focused on potential augmented reality devices and continued Mac silicon evolution as likely candidates for announcement. The settlement window closes immediately upon qualifying announcements, meaning early resolution is possible if Apple moves keynote content forward or makes unexpected pre-event disclosures.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "What will Apple announce at Apple WWDC 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://developer.apple.com/wwdc26/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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