Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Petra Marcinko and Caijsa Hennemann in the Makarska, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Petra Marcinko' if Petra Marcinko advances against Caijsa Hennemann. This market will resolve to 'Caijsa Hennemann' if Caijsa Hennemann advances against Petra Marcinko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Match O/U 21.5 | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Set 1 Winner | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Match O/U 22.5 | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Petra Marcinko faces Caijsa Hennemann in a Makarska tennis match originally scheduled for 3 June 2026. The 79% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a substantial backing of Marcinko to advance, with the settlement window closing 10 June 2026. The fixture sits within professional women's tennis scheduling, where lower-tier events like Makarska tournaments typically feature players ranked outside the top 100 or those rebuilding ranking points.
Marcinko, a Croatian player competing in her home region, carries the probability advantage that often accrues to home competitors in lower-tier events—a pattern evident across ITF and WTA 125K tournaments where local players frequently receive favourable seeding and crowd support. Hennemann, a Swedish player, would need to overcome both the ranking differential and venue disadvantage to justify the 21% probability assigned to her advancement. Historical data from comparable regional tournaments shows home-court advantage typically translates to a 10–15 percentage-point swing in match outcomes at this level.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any player withdrawal announcements, which remain common in lower-tier events when players prioritise higher-ranking tournaments. Weather disruptions in the Adriatic region during early June could trigger the seven-day delay clause leading to 50-50 resolution. Recent ITF and WTA 125K scheduling patterns suggest matches at this level proceed as scheduled absent injury or withdrawal, making the primary risk factor player availability rather than match completion uncertainty.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $42K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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