Trade: Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 20 at 7:00PM ET: If the Portland Fire win, the market will resolve to "Portland Fire". If the Indiana Fever win, the market will resolve to "Indiana Fever". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $407
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever | 38% YES | 62% NO |
Market context
Portland Fire and Indiana Fever are scheduled to meet on 20 May 2026 at 7:00PM ET in a WNBA matchup. The current order book on Polymarket prices Portland's victory at 38%, reflecting a substantial underdog position relative to Indiana. This probability distribution suggests traders are pricing in Indiana as the favoured side, though the 38% figure indicates meaningful uncertainty about the outcome rather than consensus conviction.
Historical matchup data and season-to-date records provide the foundation for reading this probability. The Fever have established themselves as a stronger franchise in recent seasons, with consistent playoff appearances and a more stable roster construction. Portland has shown volatility in performance, which typically translates to wider probability spreads in prediction markets. The 38% probability for Portland aligns with typical market pricing for a visiting team facing a stronger opponent, though the exact figure depends on current injury reports, recent form, and head-to-head records entering this fixture.
Traders should monitor roster availability in the days preceding the match, particularly any late injury announcements that could shift the probability substantially. Recent WNBA scheduling has occasionally produced postponements due to venue conflicts or logistical issues, though outright cancellations without make-up games remain rare. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 20 May, providing a hard deadline for resolution. Any material changes to either team's lineup or unexpected scheduling developments would likely trigger significant movement on the order book before tip-off.
Wikipedia Context
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Portland FireThe Portland Fire are an American professional basketball team based in Portland, Oregon. The team competes in the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) as a member of the Western Conference; it began play in May 2026. The team plays its home games at Moda Center. The franchise is the second WNBA team in the city's history, following the original Po
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Portland Fire (2000–2002)The Portland Fire were a professional basketball team in the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) based in Portland, Oregon that joined the league in 2000 as the counterpart to the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and played their games at the Rose Garden. The team folded after the 2002 season, its third in the league. They were the only WNBA team that
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Portland Fire & RescuePortland Fire and Rescue, also known as the Portland Fire Bureau, and sometimes unofficially as the Portland Fire Department, is the principle fire suppression, prevention, and rescue agency of the City of Portland, Oregon, United States. The department is the largest fire protection and emergency medical services provider in the state of Oregon, responsible
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Portland Fire Station No. 7Portland Fire Station No. 7, located in southeast Portland in the U.S. state of Oregon, is a two-story structure listed on the National Register of Historic Places. Built in 1927, it was added to the register in 1989. It was the last of numerous Portland firehouses to be designed by fire chief and architect Lee Gray Holden, who died of a stroke while visitin
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wnba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 38% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $263 if YES resolves true — a 163% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $407 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 38%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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