Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Jeremy Stephens" if Jeremy Stephens is officially declared the winner of the fight against King Green at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "King Green" if King Green is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Fight won by submission? | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Stephens to win by KO/TKO? | 39% YES | 62% NO |
Jeremy Stephens faces King Green in a lightweight bout on the main card of UFC 328, scheduled for 9 May 2026 at Madison Square Garden alongside the headlining Chimaev versus Strickland welterweight title fight. The 22% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests the market views Green as the favoured competitor, with Stephens positioned as an underdog despite his extensive UFC tenure spanning nearly two decades.
Stephens, now in his late thirties, has competed across multiple weight classes and fought elite opposition throughout his career, though recent performances have been inconsistent. Green represents a rising prospect in the lightweight division with a more recent trajectory of wins. Historical precedent in similar matchups—experienced veterans facing younger, momentum-driven challengers—typically sees the established fighter priced as an underdog when age and recent form diverge. The current probability reflects this conventional weighting, though Stephens' experience against high-level competition and unpredictable fighting style remain factors that could shift market sentiment.
Traders should monitor official UFC injury reports and any last-minute fighter withdrawals through to the fight week, as these commonly trigger significant repricing. Weight-cut complications or training camp issues affecting either fighter could move the probability substantially. The settlement window extends to 23 May 2026, allowing for potential postponement scenarios. Polymarket's order book depth will likely increase as fight week approaches, potentially tightening the current spread between the two outcomes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$332K in lifetime turnover and $263K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $293K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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