Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Rams Başakşehir FK and Samsunspor.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Rams Başakşehir FK | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Samsunspor) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Samsunspor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Rams Başakşehir FK will face Samsunspor in a Süper Lig fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this match at 100% implied probability for a YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in certainty around the event's occurrence or settlement conditions. This extreme probability typically reflects either near-complete confidence in match execution or minimal liquidity depth at current price levels, leaving the book vulnerable to movement once additional volume enters.
Historical context from Turkish football scheduling shows that Süper Lig fixtures in May are rarely cancelled, though weather disruptions and administrative delays have occasionally forced rescheduling. Comparable late-season matches in 2024 and 2025 settled without incident, establishing a baseline expectation that Saturday's fixture will proceed as scheduled. The 100% reading should be interpreted cautiously; such prices often indicate thin order books rather than genuine certainty among informed traders.
Key catalysts for movement include official team news regarding injuries or squad availability, any fixture list amendments from the Turkish Football Federation, and weather forecasts approaching the settlement window. Traders should monitor Başakşehir and Samsunspor's official announcements in the week preceding 9 May, as late withdrawals or administrative changes remain possible. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on match day, creating a narrow window for final information arrival.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://tff.org/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Samsunspor" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$27K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://tff.org/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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