Trade: Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between Juventus FC and ACF Fiorentina.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1.8M
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Juventus FC | 73% YES | 28% NO |
| Draw (Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina) | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| ACF Fiorentina | 11% YES | 90% NO |
Market context
Juventus will host Fiorentina at the Allianz Stadium on Sunday, 17 May 2026 in a Serie A fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Juventus victory at 72%, reflecting the club's historical home advantage and superior league position. Settlement occurs at 13:00 UTC on the scheduled match date.
Juventus have won approximately 65–70% of home matches against mid-table Serie A sides over the past five seasons, though Fiorentina have improved their away record considerably since 2023. The 72% probability sits near the historical baseline for Juventus at home against comparable opposition, suggesting the market has priced in standard home-ground factors without significant adjustment for form anomalies or squad depth. Recent seasons show Fiorentina occasionally trouble larger clubs through pressing intensity, but rarely as away visitors in May when fatigue compounds.
Traders should monitor team news through early May, particularly injury status for Juventus's attacking players and any fixture congestion affecting either side's final weeks. European competition schedules—should either club progress in continental tournaments—could influence squad rotation decisions. Fiorentina's recent league position and points tally relative to Juventus will clarify whether this is a title-race decider or a routine fixture, which would shift the probability materially. Official team sheets typically release 24 hours before kickoff; any surprise absences or tactical shifts could move the order book in the final trading window.
Wikipedia Context
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Juventus FCJuventus Football Club, commonly known as Juventus or colloquially as Juve, is an Italian professional football club based in Turin, Piedmont, who compete in Serie A, the top tier of the Italian football league system. Founded in 1897 by a group of Turinese students, the club played in different grounds around the city, and has played in the Juventus Stadium
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Juventus FC in international footballJuventus Football Club first participated in a Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) competition in 1958. The first international cup in which the club took part since the advent of professionalism in Italy was the Central European Cup, an inter-association tournament where the Old Lady made its debut in 1929. That competition lasted from 1927 to 19
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Juventus FC (women)
Juventus Football Club, known for commercial purposes as Juventus Women or simply Juve Women, is a women's football club based in Turin, Piedmont, Italy. It was established in 2017 as the women's section of the homonymous club, following an acquisition of Cuneo's sporting licence.
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Juventus FC–AC Milan rivalry
The Juventus FC–AC Milan rivalry is a football derby between Juventus and Milan. Both teams rank among the most successful clubs in the country's football history and often compete for all major domestic honours. It is the oldest running and most played Italian derby, having been played since 1901.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $1.8M of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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