Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between St Mirren FC and Kilmarnock FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (St Mirren FC vs. Kilmarnock FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kilmarnock FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| St Mirren FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
St Mirren and Kilmarnock will meet in a Scottish Premiership fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, indicating no meaningful liquidity or positioning behind either outcome at present. With settlement five months away, the market remains in early formation, typical for fixtures scheduled this far in advance.
Historical matchups between these clubs show competitive contests without a dominant pattern. Over the past five seasons, results have split relatively evenly, with home advantage playing a modest but consistent role in Scottish Premiership outcomes. The 0% reading should be interpreted as absence of trading activity rather than certainty; early-season markets often display extreme probabilities simply because initial liquidity is sparse and concentrated. As May approaches, depth on the orderbook will likely increase substantially.
Traders should monitor squad stability through the winter transfer window, injury patterns as the season progresses, and final-day league positioning—both clubs' finishing positions will influence motivation and team selection. Managerial changes at either club would shift tactical setup and player availability. Weather conditions on the day, whilst minor relative to form, occasionally affect outcomes in Scottish football. The fixture's proximity to the season's end means both clubs' European qualification hopes or relegation battles could materially affect team sheets and intensity on the day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "St Mirren FC vs. Kilmarnock FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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