Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Saturday, May 2, 2026 between Kilmarnock FC and Dundee United FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kilmarnock FC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Kilmarnock FC vs. Dundee United FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dundee United FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Kilmarnock FC will host Dundee United FC in a Scottish Premiership fixture on Saturday, 2 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders have priced this match as a certainty to occur as scheduled. This extreme probability typically emerges when settlement criteria are straightforward and no material uncertainty exists about fixture completion.
Scottish Premiership matches rarely fail to proceed once officially scheduled, with postponements historically limited to exceptional circumstances such as severe weather, stadium safety issues, or widespread player unavailability due to injury or international commitments. The May scheduling places this fixture late in the domestic season, reducing the likelihood of fixture congestion or emergency rescheduling. Both clubs' fixture lists and injury reports through April will be the primary variables affecting settlement confidence.
Traders should monitor official announcements from the Scottish Professional Football League regarding any fixture amendments, stadium access issues, or force majeure events in the weeks preceding the match. Recent precedent from the 2024–25 season shows that Scottish Premiership matches scheduled for May have maintained a near-perfect completion rate. The settlement window closes at 14:00 GMT on match day, allowing for confirmation of the fixture's occurrence. Any material disruption—whether weather-related, security-related, or administrative—would likely trigger significant movement from the current consensus pricing before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Kilmarnock FC vs. Dundee United FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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