Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Scottish Premiership game between Dundee United FC and Livingston FC, scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dundee United FC | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Draw | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Livingston FC | 19% YES | 81% NO |
Dundee United and Livingston meet in a Scottish Premiership fixture on 12 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Dundee United halftime win at 42%, implying roughly 29% for a draw and 29% for an away Livingston victory. This probability distribution reflects real-time trading activity and reflects the relative strength assessments traders are making about first-half performance.
Halftime results in Scottish Premiership matches historically show home sides winning roughly 45–50% of the time across a season, with draws accounting for 25–30% and away wins 20–25%. Dundee United's home record and Livingston's away performance this season will be material anchors for traders calibrating whether 42% undervalues or overvalues the home outcome. Recent fixture congestion, European commitments, or injury lists affecting either side can shift first-half intensity markedly; a team managing fatigue may sit deeper early, reducing scoring likelihood across all outcomes.
Traders should monitor team news through to kickoff, particularly confirmation of starting lineups and any late withdrawals. Livingston's defensive setup under their current manager and Dundee United's attacking approach in opening periods are relevant tactical factors. Weather conditions on the day—wind or rain affecting passing accuracy—can suppress early scoring. The settlement window closes at 18:45 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-match for official confirmation of the halftime score.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dundee United FC vs. Livingston FC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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