Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Top 14 match between La Rochelle and Toulouse, scheduled for May 16 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| La Rochelle | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Draw | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Toulouse | 55% YES | 45% NO |
La Rochelle will face Toulouse in a Top 14 fixture on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match result. The current order book on Polymarket prices a La Rochelle victory at 44% implied probability, reflecting a market view that Toulouse enters as favourites. This pricing emerges from live trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where traders continuously adjust positions based on incoming information and their own assessments of the matchup.
Historically, La Rochelle and Toulouse represent two of French rugby's most competitive sides, though their relative form fluctuates considerably season to season. La Rochelle reached the Top 14 final in 2023 but has experienced inconsistent results since; Toulouse won the Top 14 title in 2024 and maintains a reputation for depth and consistency. The 44% probability for La Rochelle reflects a meaningful but minority position—roughly a 1-to-1.3 underdog pricing—which aligns with typical market treatment of away fixtures against established contenders in the French league.
Traders monitoring this market should track squad announcements and injury reports in the weeks before 16 May, particularly regarding key ball-carriers and defensive leaders. Toulouse's European competition schedule in April and May could affect player rotation and fatigue levels heading into the fixture. Recent form in the final weeks of the regular season will also shift probabilities materially; a string of wins for either side would likely move the current 44% significantly. The settlement window closes on 23 May, allowing three days post-match for official confirmation of the result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Top 14: La Rochelle vs Toulouse" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$68 in lifetime turnover and $595 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $49 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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