Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premiership Rugby match between Newcastle Red Bulls and Harlequins, scheduled for May 10 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Newcastle Red Bulls | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Harlequins | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Newcastle Falcons will face Harlequins in a Premiership Rugby fixture on 10 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match outcome on that date. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for the YES position, indicating traders are pricing this contract as if Newcastle victory carries negligible likelihood based on available information and recent form.
Historical context for Premiership Rugby matchups shows that pre-season probability assessments often shift substantially as fixture dates approach, particularly when team sheets and injury news crystallise. Newcastle and Harlequins have competed at comparable strength levels in recent seasons, with neither club establishing dominance in head-to-head records. The 0% pricing suggests either that current market participants hold strong conviction about Harlequins' superiority, or that liquidity remains thin enough that early traders have set wide spreads. Comparable matches between mid-table Premiership sides typically trade with implied probabilities ranging from 35% to 65% for either outcome, making the current extreme reading noteworthy.
Traders should monitor squad announcements through April and early May, including confirmation of player availability and any late injury withdrawals that could reshape match dynamics. Harlequins' recent league position and Newcastle's form trajectory heading into May will influence whether the order book reprices substantially. Settlement occurs at 14:00 UTC on 17 May 2026, three days after the match, allowing time for official confirmation of the result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premiershiprugby.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Premiership Rugby: Newcastle Red Bulls vs Harlequins" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premiershiprugby.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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