Trade: Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Virtus.pro (BO1) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege Round 1 match between Shopify Rebellion and Virtus.pro in the BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 10 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against Virtus.pro. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Shopify Rebellion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- —
- Total Volume
- $526
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $457
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
Shopify Rebellion, the North American Rainbow Six Siege representatives, face Virtus.pro of Europe in the opening group stage match of the BLAST R6 Major in Salt Lake City on 10 May. The best-of-one format eliminates margin for error, with the winner advancing through the group stage bracket and the loser entering a lower bracket. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in Shopify Rebellion's prospects or minimal liquidity in the market, a common occurrence for niche esports matchups where trading volume remains thin.
Shopify Rebellion have historically underperformed against top European sides at international majors, whilst Virtus.pro has demonstrated consistency in competitive R6 environments, particularly in group stage play where preparation and map knowledge prove decisive. Recent BLAST events show European teams maintaining structural advantages in early tournament rounds, though Shopify Rebellion's domestic dominance occasionally translates to upset potential. The one-off format amplifies variance—a single round swing or tactical adjustment can determine the outcome without opportunity for adaptation.
Traders should monitor official BLAST scheduling confirmations through 9 May, as any delays or roster changes could trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause. Team announcements regarding player availability or tactical preparation shifts in the 48 hours before match time may signal shifting confidence levels. The settlement window closes 10 May at 00:30 UTC, providing minimal buffer beyond the scheduled 19:30 UTC start time for dispute resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six SiegeTom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege is a 2015 tactical shooter game developed by Ubisoft Montreal and published by Ubisoft. The game puts heavy emphasis on environmental destruction and cooperation between players. Each player assumes control of an attacker or a defender in different gameplay modes such as rescuing a hostage, defusing a bomb, or taking control of
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Rainbow Six (novel)Rainbow Six is a techno-thriller novel written by Tom Clancy and released on August 3, 1998. It is the second book to primarily focus on John Clark, one of the recurring characters in the Ryanverse, after Without Remorse (1993); it also features his son-in-law, Domingo "Ding" Chavez. Rainbow Six follows "Rainbow", a secret international counterterrorist orga
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Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six ExtractionTom Clancy's Rainbow Six Extraction is an online multiplayer tactical shooter video game developed by Ubisoft Montreal and published by Ubisoft. A spin-off of Rainbow Six Siege (2015), Extraction is a cooperative multiplayer game in which players must work together to combat and defeat a type of parasite-like aliens called the Archæans. The game was released
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Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six 3: Raven ShieldTom Clancy's Rainbow Six 3: Raven Shield is a 2003 tactical first-person shooter video game developed by Red Storm Entertainment and published by Ubi Soft for Microsoft Windows and Mac OS X. It is the third entry in the Rainbow Six series. The game's plot follows Rainbow, a secret international counterterrorist organization, as they respond to a wave of terr
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/rainbow6bravo. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Virtus.pro (BO1) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$526 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Virtus.pro (BO1) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/rainbow6bravo. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Virtus.pro (BO1) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Group Stage"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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